‘Probably’?!

I see modern responsa using the flippant “מסתמא” a lot, such as here.

I don’t understand. Do they mean one can be lenient or one must be stringent in cases of doubt? What happened to the word “Mesafek” (in cases of doubt)?! Don’t they have to prove that is, indeed, the “Stama” (default), by exhausting their investigative capacity?

(See here regarding Bayes’ Theorem.)

As the C.I. says in O.C. chap. 9, חמורה היא ההלכה, etc. (and in context-missing Kovetz Iggros II 34: דברים
קלים כמעט לא נפגשתי ואמנם הוא בעומק עיונו לעמוקא דדינא הכל קשה).

I don’t want to fling accusations, but I think people who employ that Goyish/teenage word are…


A friend told me he once asked two different rabbis the same question of Techumin. One started off by saying it probably was not בית סאתים but then walked over to check for himself. The other started off saying it was likely a בית סאתים and still walked over to check for himself. (It wasn’t.)

Point is, Solvitur ambulando!