From Wikipedia:
Bush promised a humble foreign policy with no nation building. He had criticized the Clinton-Gore Administration for being too interventionist: “If we don’t stop extending our troops all around the world in nation-building missions, then we’re going to have a serious problem coming down the road. And I’m going to prevent that.”
So, no, Bush didn’t “prevent that” (he was running for office, so lies are only to be expected). We don’t get to vote on policy and presidential advisors, even for show. The vote concerns purely which actor will be the pretty face of the State.
But the prediction part was spot-on!