This insider non-liberarian is addressing the martial strategy of Israel vs. Iran, but the same inexorable logic would apply to all States everywhere, all of whom overreach, all of which harm both their people and others. He’s making my case for me!
Some excerpts for Aikido:
Despite the uneasy and artificial “peace” agreement, imposed recently (and arguably prematurely) by Donald Trump, the debate still rages, and speculation still swirls around the Iran-Israel conflict — particularly over the irksome question as to how it will play out in the long run.
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This is the reason that regime change must be a minimal imperative for Israel at the end of the hostilities—which are likely only to delay, not eradicate, the perils that precipitated the recent conflict.
It is because of this that, to ensure the permanent defanging of Iran, Israel must aspire to a goal beyond regime change. It must focus its efforts on inducing the disintegration of the country in its present configuration into several self-governing ethnic entities — principally non-Persian ones.
It is important to note that Iran’s population is far from monolithic. To the contrary, it is a heterogeneous mixture of diverse ethnicities, almost equally divided between Persians (50-60%) and non-Persians. Thus, as a recent publication by the MEMRI research institute points out, the overall population comprises- among others – Kurds in the west, Baloch in the southeast, Ahwazi Arabs in the south, Azeris in the northwest, and Turkmen in the northeast. Other groups include the Lurs and the Lak people…
And how many countries’ populations are monolithic?!
Israel cannot rely solely on regime change to ensure its post-war security, for at least two reasons.
The first relates to what the successor regime might be, with no guarantee that it will be at all amicable towards the Jewish state, particularly given the widespread negative view of Israel prevailing in large segments of the Iranian public.
The second relates to the uncertainty of the fate of any successor regime, no matter how benign, and the possibility of it itself being overthrown by some other regime, which might well be far more malevolent than its deposed predecessor.
Accordingly, in order to address these unknowns, Israel must go beyond the goal of regime change. Instead, it must aspire for Iran to be dismantled into separate self-governing ethnic entities to ensure that, in the future, it will not become the grave menace that it was in the past.
Sounds like every democracy and every election! None of them can be trusted to play well “in the long run”.