Bayes’ Theorem and the Chazon Ish – I Think

What is Bayes’ Theorem?

My humble understanding of it is the insight all scientific causal predictions depend upon prior assumed knowledge of the facts of the matter in question. The same applies to that prior purported factual knowledge, as well, with infinite regression. Why? The hard part in statistical analysis is determining sample size (Base Rate). The base rate, too, derives from various prior proofs, which, in turn, require another quantity estimate from earlier in time, and on and on.

This is the Chazon Ish’s point on the impossibility to decide disputes since every position is born of ingrained prior axioms (since he is certainly not speaking of childhood traumas!):

“It is not my way to enter debate, because differences of opinion are usually caused by personal events that may have taken place years earlier, even during one’s childhood. Any proof I will bring will not change an embedded opinion. I, therefore, refrain from answering.”

Kovetz Iggros Chazon Ish 1:28

A Real Scientist: The connection seems “vague and only roughly applicable”.

Says you and what army?

Comments are closed, but trackbacks and pingbacks are open.